Hurricane season has begun in Florida, and with it has come questions. After the intense storms the state endured in 2024, several concerns have been raised about how Florida will navigate it all this time around.
“You have the dynamic model and statistical model and the observations, but the seasonal forecasts involve a lot of uncertainty,” Dr. Ping Zhu, an Earth and Environment professor at Florida International University, said. “There are suggestions that this season will be slightly above normal based on the current information we have.”
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasted a 60% chance of above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Still, it remains unclear how many storms may impact South Florida, the state overall, or what their severity will be.
Last year, Florida was struck by three hurricanes, Milton, Helen and Debby. At the time, it was also predicted that the Atlantic would have an above-average season. Warm ocean water, low wind shear and a La Niña pattern resulted in an extremely active season.
The state saw supercell tornadoes, deadly flash flooding, catastrophic storm surges and damaging winds. But current conditions differ from last year; it is observed that the Pacific is in an ENSO-neutral condition, indicating La Niña and El Niño are inactive this year.
“We are in a normal year, in terms of La Niña and El Niño, and also based on the wind shear, which is also normal. But observations show the Atlantic sea temperatures are a little higher … that’s why meteorologists predict this season will be slightly above normal,” Zhu explained. “The season forecasts for hurricanes is very difficult, it’s not like you forecast individual storms. It involves a lot of uncertainty.”
Florida residents and the rest of the country rely on accurate weather predictions to prepare for storms and create evacuation plans. However, meteorologists and other climate scientists in the U.S. are facing numerous challenges today, including possible decreased federal funding, layoffs within NOAA and the National Weather Service, and reduced access to satellite data from our government. Affecting the accuracy of their research, weather predictions and future projects.
“For me, personally, I haven’t experienced any impacts on my research,” Dr. Haiyan Jiang, an FIU professor with a specialty in Meteorology and Atmospheric Remote Sensing, said. “I hope, [with] this year’s budget, they will continue to support our work.”
Other dangers facing South Florida are the uncertainties surrounding FEMA.
“There is the question of what the federal government will do post-storm,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said during the signing of the 2025-2026 Florida budget. “We handle the prep, we handle the initial response, but it’s mostly locally executed, managed, and directed.”
Last year, FEMA provided Florida with more than $1 billion in disaster relief funds due to the unprecedented damage hurricanes Helen and Milton caused. Communities along the western coast and the panhandle are still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s hurricane season.
“The people who work in NOAA and FEMA and all the disaster preparedness stuff, they do it because they want to make the world a better place,” Dr. Hugh Willoughby, a research professor at FIU specializing in hurricane dynamics and hurricane impacts, said. “From my point of view, foregoing those improvements [in technology and funding] will cost us as a country. Cost in human suffering and a monetary cost.”
Editor’s Note: A quote from FIU professor Haiyan Jiang has been changed at their request.
