The gas on Major League Baseball’s offseason hot stove will be cranked up considerably when the Winter Meetings take place in just one week in Dallas. But before the water starts boiling, there are a number of interesting storylines to pay attention to, including the biggest domino yet to fall (hint: it’s Juan Soto.)
The Juan Soto Sweepstakes
There are three important questions unpinning the unfolding Soto saga. When? Where? And How much?
Soto was the most significant non-Ohtani free agent of last season before he signed a one-year deal with the New York Yankees. The 25 year-old then went on to have the best season of his young and stellar career. While Yankee faithful would have hoped Soto would resign quickly, Soto himself opened up the floodgates after New York’s defeat in game five of the World Series.
“At the end of the day, we’ll see where we are at,” he said. “Definitely a tough game to be my last one.”
And just like that the bidding war began.
As for when, the answer is likely as late as possible to create competition among the few teams that will be able to afford him. Reports this week indicated that the Yankees have already made an improvement to their original offer.
“We certainly have an interest in retaining him and we’ll put our best foot forward there,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said last month, after the World Series. “That will either lead to us retaining him and signing him back or we’ll be forced to go to a different direction if we can’t. And if we can’t, there’s a lot of different players in this marketplace that can positively impact this roster in different ways.”
The favorites for where would be the Bronx Bombers, not only do they have the deep pockets required, but Yankee Stadium suits Soto’s offense perfectly, as evidenced by the career high 41 home runs he hit last year.
The Mets are also contenders to keep Soto in the big apple, they certainly have the desire and the dollars to make the deal happen. So do the Toronto Blue Jays and the Los Angeles Dodgers who could all but wrap up next year’s World Series if they land Soto.
A dark horse contender for Soto is the Boston Red Sox, the organization has been in a slump since trading Mookie Betts after the 2019 season, and a big splash could be a shot across the bow that Boston is back.
The answer to how much is simple — an astronomical amount. At least $600 million of total value seems like a slam dunk, and it could come close or exceed Ohtani’s $700 million from last offseason. And it will likely be somewhere in the ballpark of the same 10-year time frame. It’s the price to pay for a bona fide inner circle hall-of-fame level player in his age 26 season.
Is Garrett Crochet good as gone?
The Chicago White Sox are terrible. Garrett Crochet is very good. The two are not compatible. The 25-year old fireballing southpaw was exceptional last year, and he earned his first All-star nod. His swing and miss stuff is elite, Crochet struck out 35% of the batters he faced and only walked just 5.5%. His breaking pitches could be refined, but he’s young and his four seam and cutter do enough damage already. Crochet proved himself as a quality frontline starter for years to come.
However, he is still under team control until next summer. Conventional wisdom says that the White Sox will ship him off from prospects this offseason, but the package will have to be a good one — from teams like the Philadelphia Phillies, the Boston Red Sox, and the Dodgers, who will likely be in on every starting pitcher this offseason. Chicago can always wait and see if a better package materializes nearer to the trade deadline so a move before spring is not guaranteed.
There is also the incompetent but not impossible future where they hold Crochet and lose him for nothing next October.
How do the Mets reload?
As of Aug. 29, the New York Mets were looking at another lost season. Then the team got hot, very hot. They closed the regular season 19-9, made the postseason on the last day of the season, and orchestrated a postseason run that ended just two wins away from the World Series. The formula should be simple, run it back with a few upgrades and call it an offseason.
Not so simple.
Three of the team’s five starters are free agents. The bullpen, which was exposed to the tune of a 5.56 ERA in the postseason, needs help, and Pete Alonso, the thumping heart of the middle of the order, could also walk this offseason– maybe even to their crosstown rivals. In total 14 players of the 40 man roster are free agents.
That’s the bad news. The good news? Owner Steve Cohen can and will throw money at the problem.
The Mets are aggressively pursuing Soto which would instantly improve the line-up. But the longer they wait for Soto to make a decision, the more quality replacements and upgrades go off the board.
The Mets have the resources and roster spaces to do almost anything, but the route they chose to take could make or break their 2025.
Where does Roki Sasaki land?
When great Japanese players finally make it to Major League Baseball, they come with a hefty price tag. Well, they usually do, but not Roki Sasaki.
The 23-year old burst onto the stage in the 2023 World Baseball Classic in Miami with a triple digit heater and devastating splitter. Since he was posted by his Japanese team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, before his 26th birthday, he will have to sign a minor league contract with an MLB team. He is expected to do so after the beginning of the year as part of the 2025 international free agency period. The max bonus a team would have to pay for Sasaki is $7.5 million, which would be bad for his wallet but very good for the team that ends up signing him.
But even on a minor league deal, Sasaki is not a minor league player. He will start right away for any team, he has ace upside, and his affordability means every team could theoretically afford him.
Early leaders in the club house in the Sasaki sweepstakes are division rivals. The Dodgers, who have two of Sasaki’s WBC teammates in Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and the San Diego Padres. But while the Dodgers have more of Sasaki’s Japanese teammates, the Padres have the most important one– Yu Darvish. Sasaki grew up idolizing Darvish, referring to the Padres starter as “senpai” which translates to “elder” or “teacher.”
He could also end up outside of Southern California, but realistically a major market team makes the most sense (Tough break, Miami Marlins fans.)
Can the Dodgers do it all again?
A team that dominates the World Series in five games doesn’t often have a glaring weakness, but the 2024 Dodgers certainly did. In the Divisional and Championship rounds, it was obvious that they did not have enough arms in the rotation. Those series were won thanks to a few heroic bullpen games that Dave Roberts managed to cobble together.
It was largely due to injury, Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, and Dusty May all ended the year on IR, but the Dodgers knew they would need to address the rotation this offseason. Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler are both free agents meaning Yamamoto is the only starting pitcher left from the postseason roster on the team in 2025.
So the Dodgers did what the Dodgers do. They made a splash by signing Blake Snell in free agency. In addition they also get Ohtani added back to the rotation. They are also in the pursuit for Sasaki and other free agent pitchers like Corbin Burns, they could even swing a trade for Crochet.
But all that glitters isn’t gold in Hollywood. Snell is elite, when healthy. He’s only pitched 130 or more innings twice, both of his Cy Young seasons. If the Dodgers are looking for innings, Snell is far from a sure bet. Ohtani is coming off a second Tommy John surgery, and will likely have the Dodgers using a six man rotation to compensate. The team just announced they are re-signing Dustin May which helps, but he hasn’t started more than 10 games since 2020. Simply put, they still need arms.
Of course, the Dodger will have no problem attracting and signing free agent pitchers. Also if they sign Soto, it might not matter. But one big singing does not solve the Dodgers pitching problems just yet.
